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Track market-implied probabilities for release timing, delays, pricing, trailers and other GTA VI events.
The YES price recorded at 2026-09-07T20:07:57.989Z implies 2.2% for this exact question. Read the settlement rules below before interpreting it. This is not Rockstar’s probability.
Market data delayed.
PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S are listed in GTALedger’s sourced release guide. Prediction-market prices do not change these official facts.
Release guide & evidence ↗These markets use different questions or deadlines, so their prices are shown individually. A combined range appears only when two platforms offer the same reviewed contract.
Pricing reflects trading, not guarantees. Differences can arise from liquidity, fees, participants and rules. GTALedger does not treat a simple average as a better forecast.
Highest volume firstVolume is total trading activity. Liquidity is the amount currently available to trade.
YES market-implied probability
Observed 9/7/2026, 8:07:57 PM UTC
Price basis: Platform-reported outcome price (USD per $1 share). Source updated: 2026-09-07T20:05:54.652Z. Close dates describe the market contract, not necessarily the game release.
Actual GTALedger observations, not reconstructed history. Up to 4,000 latest snapshots; gaps are left unconnected.
| Observed (UTC) | YES probability | Volume (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07T04:21:34.249Z | 2.3% | 403552.50929400016 |
| 2026-09-07T20:07:57.989Z | 2.2% | 403935.24283600005 |
Latest 100 observations in the selected view.
Read the complete, authoritative settlement rules at the market source below.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard edition of Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6) launches at $100.00 or more. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the pre-tax launch price in USD of the standard edition of GTA 6 on Xbox or PlayStation as listed on the Microsoft Store or PlayStation Store on the first official day of its release in the United States. If the price differs between the Microsoft and PlayStation stores, this market will resolve according to the lower price. This market will resolve based on the lowest price version that includes the full standard game with no DLC, etc. If GTA 6 is not released or release is otherwise delayed beyond February 28, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the Microsoft Store/PlayStation Store, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution source: See the platform’s full settlement rules.
Market source on PolymarketYES requires the US standard edition to launch at $100 or more before tax. The lower Microsoft Store or PlayStation Store price controls if they differ. A release delayed beyond February 28, 2027 resolves NO, so this contract combines a price threshold with a launch deadline. Deluxe editions and DLC do not count.
New official information, liquidity and participant activity can affect prices. A change occurring after an announcement does not prove the announcement caused it.
No reviewed event annotations yet.
No. Only Rockstar can confirm its announcements. Market pricing represents participant expectations under specific contract rules.
Not necessarily. Dates, announcement requirements and resolution criteria differ. GTALedger does not invert one question into another.
24-hour, 7-day and 30-day changes need real observations near those earlier times. New markets, missing history and stale data show no calculated change.