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Track market-implied probabilities for release timing, delays, pricing, trailers and other GTA VI events.
The YES price recorded at 2026-09-07T20:07:59.163Z implies 95.5% for this exact question. Read the settlement rules below before interpreting it. This is not Rockstar’s probability.
Market data delayed.
PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S are listed in GTALedger’s sourced release guide. Prediction-market prices do not change these official facts.
Release guide & evidence ↗These markets use different questions or deadlines, so their prices are shown individually. A combined range appears only when two platforms offer the same reviewed contract.
Pricing reflects trading, not guarantees. Differences can arise from liquidity, fees, participants and rules. GTALedger does not treat a simple average as a better forecast.
Highest volume firstVolume is total trading activity. Liquidity is the amount currently available to trade.
YES market-implied probability
Observed 9/7/2026, 8:07:59 PM UTC
Price basis: Platform-reported outcome price (USD per $1 share). Source updated: 2026-09-07T20:05:54.652Z. Close dates describe the market contract, not necessarily the game release.
Actual GTALedger observations, not reconstructed history. Up to 4,000 latest snapshots; gaps are left unconnected.
| Observed (UTC) | YES probability | Volume (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07T04:21:34.249Z | 95.3% | 268.489465 |
| 2026-09-07T20:07:59.163Z | 95.5% | 268.489465 |
Latest 100 observations in the selected view.
Read the complete, authoritative settlement rules at the market source below.
Grand Theft Auto VI is currently scheduled to be released for the PlayStation 5 console on November 19, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US launch price of the base version of Grand Theft Auto VI for the PlayStation 5 is greater than or equal to the specified price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the advertised price. Any additional sales or consumption tax, if not included in the advertised price, will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve based on the base version of the game, excluding any optional add-ons. This market will resolve solely based on the price for the PlayStation 5 console. The price available on any other console will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the first price available to consumers upon general launch of the game. The game will be considered launched when it is publicly available for download or retail purchase. Any preorder, invite-only, couponed, or closed offering price will not be considered. Any later revisions to the launch price will not be considered. If the GTA VI launch price differs based on region of the US, this market will consider the lowest advertised price at launch. If GTA VI is not launched for the PlayStation 5, or is not available as a standalone purchase (e.g. exclusively accessed as part of a subscription), by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the PlayStation US online store (https://www.playstation.com/en-us/games/). If no price is available on the PlayStation US online store, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Resolution source: See the platform’s full settlement rules.
Market source on PolymarketYES requires a US PS5 base-game launch price of at least $75. This is a threshold, not an exact-price prediction. The lowest advertised US launch price controls; preorders, optional add-ons and other consoles are excluded. No qualifying standalone PS5 launch by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET resolves NO. The PlayStation US store is the primary source.
New official information, liquidity and participant activity can affect prices. A change occurring after an announcement does not prove the announcement caused it.
No reviewed event annotations yet.
No. Only Rockstar can confirm its announcements. Market pricing represents participant expectations under specific contract rules.
Not necessarily. Dates, announcement requirements and resolution criteria differ. GTALedger does not invert one question into another.
24-hour, 7-day and 30-day changes need real observations near those earlier times. New markets, missing history and stale data show no calculated change.