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Track market-implied probabilities for release timing, delays, pricing, trailers and other GTA VI events.
The YES price recorded at 2026-09-07T20:07:59.365Z implies 6.5% for this exact question. Read the settlement rules below before interpreting it. This is not Rockstar’s probability.
Market data delayed.
PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S are listed in GTALedger’s sourced release guide. Prediction-market prices do not change these official facts.
Release guide & evidence ↗These markets use different questions or deadlines, so their prices are shown individually. A combined range appears only when two platforms offer the same reviewed contract.
Pricing reflects trading, not guarantees. Differences can arise from liquidity, fees, participants and rules. GTALedger does not treat a simple average as a better forecast.
Highest volume firstVolume is total trading activity. Liquidity is the amount currently available to trade.
YES market-implied probability
Observed 9/7/2026, 8:07:59 PM UTC
Price basis: Platform-reported outcome price (USD per $1 share). Source updated: 2026-09-07T20:03:55.414Z. Close dates describe the market contract, not necessarily the game release.
Actual GTALedger observations, not reconstructed history. Up to 4,000 latest snapshots; gaps are left unconnected.
| Observed (UTC) | YES probability | Volume (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07T04:21:34.249Z | 6.5% | 789522.8910660004 |
| 2026-09-07T20:07:59.365Z | 6.5% | 791016.9347969997 |
Latest 100 observations in the selected view.
Read the complete, authoritative settlement rules at the market source below.
On November 6, 2025, Take-Two Interactive, the parent company of Rockstar Games, announced that the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA VI) would be postponed from its previously scheduled release date of May 26, 2026, to a new release date of November 19, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive, officially announces that Grand Theft Auto VI will not be released by November 19, 2026, or if Grand Theft Auto VI is otherwise not released in the US by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: See the platform’s full settlement rules.
Market source on PolymarketYES means a further official delay announcement or no qualifying US release by November 19, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The API close-date field is separate from that settlement deadline. This is market pricing of this contract, not an official release forecast.
New official information, liquidity and participant activity can affect prices. A change occurring after an announcement does not prove the announcement caused it.
No reviewed event annotations yet.
No. Only Rockstar can confirm its announcements. Market pricing represents participant expectations under specific contract rules.
Not necessarily. Dates, announcement requirements and resolution criteria differ. GTALedger does not invert one question into another.
24-hour, 7-day and 30-day changes need real observations near those earlier times. New markets, missing history and stale data show no calculated change.